Following the outbreak of the A-share metal cobalt plate, the titanium dioxide plate took off in the past two days. Judging from the price increase of these two small metal markets, the price of cobalt has increased by nearly 125% in the past year, and titanium dioxide has also increased significantly by 90%. The increase in the industry price will gradually be transmitted to the profits of related enterprises, becoming a bright spot in the market. What other small metal plates deserve attention? What is the main logic of this price increase? Let's take a look at the analyst's point of view!
What are the small metals? You may hear that many non-ferrous metals are large metals such as copper, zinc, and lead. They are relatively new to small metals. The metals that the market is concerned about are cobalt, tungsten, antimony, lithium, rare earth, titanium, germanium, zirconium, magnesium, etc. The use of small metals is also relatively special, mainly used in coatings, battery raw materials, and military applications. Among them, tungsten, rare earth, antimony and other small metals rank among China's four major strategic resources.
The Anxin Nonferrous team recently conducted an in-depth analysis of the small metal industry. The rise of the small metal industry is also summarized for four major reasons : 1. Price: The price of small metals is relatively sticky, and they tend to accumulate in the inflation cycle. They may be late, but they must be late. Will not be absent, and the retracement is small. 2. Cost: The cost line rises, and the price of small metals cannot fall, and it is easy to rise but difficult to fall. 3. Demand: The rise of manufacturing investment is closely related to the demand for small metals. There is a real pull in demand, and the concept of new materials will gradually come out. 4. Supply: The supply side is clear, the oligopoly and policy attributes are strong, and it is easy for traders to stock up and sell, and financial capital contributes to the flames.
According to Baichuan Information, the trading price of cobalt has increased by 62% in the past three months. Looking at overseas markets, the LME cobalt spot has continued to rise for a year, with a cumulative increase of about 115%. Since last year, the price of titanium dioxide has also soared by 90%.
The hot price of cobalt may continue. Data from the commodity consulting company CRU show that the global supply and demand gap for cobalt may be around 900 tons this year. Considering the large amount of procurement in the electric vehicle industry, the demand for cobalt will increase by 20% each year in the next five years. Regarding titanium dioxide, according to the Securities Daily, the market is generally expected that the titanium dioxide market in 2017 will remain the seller-led situation, and the price of titanium dioxide is expected to exceed 20,000 yuan / ton.
Small metal wheels, which segments still have opportunities in the later stage? From the past performance of the A-shares non-ferrous sector, the small metal sector tends to have a strong demand for supplementary growth after the industrial metal surges and maintains high volatility; such supplementary growth is often triggered by policy factors and is basically geared towards good support. The price increases of major manufacturers, the replenishment of the industrial chain and the reluctance to sell goods have contributed to the flames, and they have a strong surge in momentum. ( 000166 , 买入 ) ( 00218 )也指出，小金属周期是跟随大金属，倘若大金属出现超预期下跌，小金属行情也将全面终结。 But Shen Wanhongyuan ( 000166 , BUY ) ( 00218 ) also pointed out that the small metal cycle follows the big metal. If the big metal declines more than expected, the small metal market will also be completely terminated.
Anxin Non-Ferrous Metals Qi Ding said that at present the general order of attention for small metal rotation is: cobalt, tungsten, antimony, lithium, rare earth, titanium, germanium, zirconium, magnesium. The agency said that in the inflation cycle, small metals will make up, but it is only a matter of rising more or less, rising faster and slower. Now buying small metals will not lose money at least, because small metals are easy to rise in the inflation cycle Difficult Lord.
( 600109 , 买入 )有色金属分析师廖淦则表示，对于上半年主要看好钨和锑，下半年较为看好氢氧化锂。 National Gold Securities ( 600109 , buy ) non-ferrous metals analyst Liao Yu said that for the first half of the year is mainly optimistic about tungsten and antimony, the second half is more optimistic about lithium hydroxide. Antimony is mainly due to environmental protection, and its output has been greatly reduced. At present, the price of antimony concentrate has reached 60%. Lithium hydroxide is mainly optimistic about the demand for lithium hydroxide in high-end ternary lithium batteries.
From a private equity perspective, they are more optimistic about the rare earth industry. They believe that the recent trade war has gradually escalated, and China is a major exporter of rare earths. It can use rare earths as a weapon to sanction trade wars, and the export costs of rare earths may increase later.